News

Netherlands: Dwelling permits down by 17,4% (yoy)

In July 2018 the dwelling permits were slightly above 5.600 units in Netherlands. The value fell -11,0% down to 5.629 units. In comparison to the last 10 years the highest value was 12.575 units in December 2009 and the lowest value was 1.261 units in August 2013. Compared to the year before, the value decreased by -17,4% and compared to June, the value decreased by -11,0%. Based on this data the B+L forecast for the current year leads to a yearly growth rate of 3,0%.

Macedonia: Dwelling permits at 3-Month High

In July 2018 the dwelling permits were close to 650 units in Macedonia. This is 21,2% over the annual average and the highest since April 2018. The value rose 17,0% up to 648 units. Compared to the year before, the value increased by 208,6% and compared to June, the value increased by 17,0%. Based on this data the B+L forecast for the current year leads to a yearly growth rate of 5,1%

Poland: Dwelling permits Lowest in 7 Months

In June 2018 the dwelling permits were just above 22.600 units in Poland. This is 44,4% over the annual average and the lowest since December 2017. The value rose 2,7% up to 22.608 units. In comparison to the year before the value decreased by -6,0% and compared to the last period the value increased by 2,7%. Based on this data the B+L forecast for the current year leads to a yearly growth rate of 4,3%.

Croatia: Dwelling permits Falls to 5-Month Low

In June 2018 the dwelling permits were just under 800 units in Croatia. This is -23,0% under the annual average and the lowest since January 2018. The value fell -6,9% down to 782 units. In comparison to the last 10 years the highest value was 5.119 units in December 2008 and the lowest value was 412 units in July 2014. Compared to the year before the value increased by 6,1% and compared to May, the value decreased by -6,9%. Based on this data the B+L forecast for the current year leads to a yearly growth rate of 12,3%

Poland: Dwelling permits Down -13,0%

In July 2018 the dwelling permits were around 19.650 units in Poland. This is 25,6% over the annual average and the lowest since December 2017. The value fell -13,0% down to 19.658 units. Compared to the year before, the value decreased by -4,8% and compared to the June, the value decreased by -13,0%. Based on this data the B+L forecast for the current year leads to a yearly growth rate of 1,9%.

Finland: Dwelling permits Up 49,6%

In June 2018 the dwelling permits were around 6.100 units in Finland. This is 120,9% over the annual average and the highest since June 2017. The value rose 49,6% up to 6.142 units . In comparison to the last 10 years the highest value was 7.170 units in June 2017 and the lowest value was 665 units in January 2009. Compared to the year before the value decreased by -14,3% and compared to May the value increased by 49,6%. Based on this data the B+L forecast for the current year leads to a yearly growth rate of 2,0%.

Chile: Dwelling permits at 24-Month Low

In July 2018 the dwelling permits were around 6.600 units in Chile. This is -48,2% under the annual average and the lowest since July 2016. The value fell -52,3% down to 6.606 units . In comparison to the last 10 years the highest value was 27.069 units in March 2009 and the lowest value was 5.791 units in July 2016. Compared to the year before, the value decreased by -31,4% and compared to June, the value decreased by -52,3%. Based on this data the B+L forecast for the current year leads to a yearly growth rate of 1,5%.

Australia: Dwelling permits down by -4,1% (yoy)

In July 2018 the dwelling permits were 19.002 units in Australia. This is 19,8% over the annual average and the lowest since April 2018. The value fell -3,6% down to 19.002 units . In comparison to the last 10 years the highest value was 23.332 units in November 2017 and the lowest value was 7.431 units in January 2009. Compared to the year before, the value decreased by -4,1% and compared to June, the value decreased by -3,6%. Based on this data the B+L forecast for the current year leads to a yearly growth rate of 1,9%.

Turkey: Dwelling permits Down -11,4%

Attention: Housing construction is collapsing in Turkey. In autumn 2017, record values were recorded for housing permits. In September 2017, 317,000 permits were issued. That was three times the usual monthly figure. The reason for this was a change in building laws from October 2017 (e.g. ban on 1 room apartments). As the chart shows, the following months were clearly in the red due to pull-forward effects. The question now arises as to how much of this negative development up to June 2018 can now be attributed to the pull-forward effects and how much to the collapse of the Turkish currency. Here one gains some clarity if one adds the number of approvals from July 2017 to September 2017 above the average of approx. 92,000 approvals. Here one comes on approx. 330,000 dwellings. If we now spread these over the months starting in October 2017, the pull-forward effect will be used up around February 2018. This means that from March 2018 we will have to deal with "real" declines in building permits. 
In June 2018 the dwelling permits were 72.970 units in Turkey. In comparison to the year before the value decreased by -66,7%.  Based on this data the B+L forecast for the current year leads to a yearly growth rate of -23,5%.

Turkey: Non residential building permits Up 8,1%

In June 2018 the non residential building permits were 3.937.062 m² in Turkey. This is 19,3% over the annual average and the highest since December 2017. The value rose 8,1% up to 3.937.062 m² . Compared to the year before, the value has decreased by -39,6% and compared to May, the value has increased by 8,1%. Based on this data the B+L forecast for the current year leads to a yearly growth rate of -4,5%.

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Robin Huth
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Email: RH@BL2020.com