According to Forbes Brasil, Caixa Econômica Federal's mortgage portfolio reached R$1 trillion in June, driven by double-digit growth in loans tied to the Minha Casa Minha Vida (MCMV) housing programme. The outlet reported that the government programme, alone, accounts for 58% of the state-owned bank's portfolio, with a record budget of R$208 billion turning it into the main refuge for large developers facing high interest rates.
From January to March 2026, Caixa granted R$64,2 billion in mortgage credit, an increase of more than 30% compared with the same period a year earlier, Forbes Brasil noted. Eduardo Fischer, chief executive of homebuilder MRV, told the outlet that Brazil's housing deficit remains large despite MCMV and other programmes, and that credit access, rather than income, is now the main constraint for prospective buyers, since funding for middle and higher income brackets has become more expensive.
Sell-side analysts at a bank cited by Forbes Brasil estimated that MCMV loans total around R$610 billion, representing 93% of the credit portfolio funded by the FGTS (Fundo de Garantia do Tempo de Serviço, Brazil's severance-pay fund) as of April 2026, with a return of 4,72% a year. The same analysts pointed to little room for improvement given the subsidized financing rates offered under the programme, since the fund's deposits need to yield at least the rate of inflation, a level that currently exceeds the yield generated by its housing loans.
Extraordinary withdrawals, including the birthday withdrawal mechanism known as saque-aniversário, have already drained R$15 billion from the FGTS fund so far in 2026, according to the bank's calculations reported by Forbes Brasil. The same sell-side team said it met recently with a member of the fund's board, who reported that studies are underway for lower financing rates for MCMV's income brackets 3 and 4 (Faixas 3 e 4).