According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the six-month trend in housing starts fell 2,8% in June to 248.123 units compared with May. The trend measure, a six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), is used by CMHC as a lead indicator to smooth month-to-month swings in the pipeline of new housing supply. The monthly standalone SAAR for all areas of Canada dropped 6% to 238.971 units in June from 253.083 units in May, while the rural starts SAAR was estimated at 11.141 units.
Actual monthly starts in centres with a population of 10.000 or more came in at 20.265 units in June, down 13% from 23.292 units a year earlier. Year-to-date, starts totalled 113.017 units, down 1% from the same period in 2025. Among the three largest metropolitan areas, Montreal posted a 10% year-on-year increase in actual starts driven by higher multi-unit activity, Toronto rose 25% on higher multi-unit starts, while Vancouver recorded a 35% decrease due to lower multi-unit and single-detached starts.
Further along the pipeline, the number of units under construction in centres of 50.000 or more stayed essentially flat, up 0,2% month-over-month to 375.469 units. Completions, a lag indicator reflecting projects launched in earlier years, rose 8,4% to 18.298 units in June. The stock of units with approved building permits but not yet started fell 1,1% month-over-month to 137.324 units.
Kevin Hughes, Deputy Chief Economist with CMHC, said that through the first six months of the year, the rate of housing starts in Canada is lower than last year's rate, in line with the baseline forecast the agency published in February. He added that the slowdown reflects rising uncertainty, higher development costs, weaker demand and more unsold homes, and said this environment is expected to hold back new housing construction over the short to medium term and drive actual 2026 housing starts below 2025 levels.