According to the Luzerner Kantonalbank (LUKB) (Lucerne Cantonal Bank), the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left its policy rate unchanged at 0% at its meeting on 18 June 2026, keeping it at the level in place since 19 June 2025. The bank's Investment Office now forecasts a moderate rise in mortgage-related swap rates over the coming year, with the 10-year swap rate, which as of 9 July 2026 stood at 0,64%, expected to hold near 0,60% over the next three months before climbing to 0,80% within 12 months. LUKB states that this implies somewhat higher rates for fixed-rate mortgages over the medium to long term.
On the policy rate itself, LUKB expects the SNB to keep it at 0% in the coming months before raising it to 0,25% on a 12-month horizon. The SARON mortgage rate, which combines the compounded SARON reference rate with an individually agreed margin, fell following the SNB's rate cut to 0% on 19 June 2025 and is expected to stay anchored to that policy setting in the near term.
Inflation remains within the SNB's zone of price stability across the forecast period. The SNB's conditional inflation forecast points to average rates of 0,6% for both 2026 and 2027, rising to 0,7% in 2028, an assumption built on the policy rate staying at 0%. LUKB notes that while short-term inflation projections have edged up slightly, medium-term price pressure is essentially unchanged from the central bank's previous assessment, underpinning the decision to hold rates steady.
On growth, the SNB describes the Swiss economy as resilient despite the conflict in the Middle East, with gross domestic product expanding solidly in the first quarter, supported by manufacturing as well as services and construction. The SNB projects full-year growth of around 1% for 2026 and around 1,5% for 2027, while LUKB's own Investment Office forecasts unchanged growth of 1,1% for 2026, rising to 1,5% in 2027. LUKB identifies domestic demand as the main growth driver going forward, while the SNB flags the trajectory of the global economy, a possible renewed escalation in the Middle East, renewed upward pressure on the franc, and US trade policy as the principal risks to the outlook.